Climate vulnerability – Coastal campsite
Multi-hazard climate vulnerability study conducted for the La Guérandière campsite in Billiers: marine submersion, flooding, and vegetation fire, with mapping of exposed areas and recommendations for site adaptation.
Client:
La Guérandière Campsite
Project type:
Climate vulnerability
Date:
2025
Localization:
Billiers, Morbihan
In a context of increasing climate hazards along the coast, the La Guérandière campsite commissioned UrbanThink to carry out a climate vulnerability study of its site. The objective was to assess the campsite’s exposure to several natural risks—marine submersion, flooding, and vegetation fire—in order to inform site planning, prevention, and safety decisions.
Issue
Located in Billiers, in Morbihan, the campsite covers 23,317 m² and includes 88 pitches. Situated in a coastal area and in an environment marked by the presence of the Saint-Éloi River, a stream along the site boundary, and an alluvial plain, it has significant exposure to rising water levels and flooding. The site is also surrounded by vegetation requiring particular vigilance regarding fire risk.
Our approach
UrbanThink deployed a multi-scale cartographic analysis of the site and its immediate surroundings. For marine submersion, the study relies on topography, the NGF datum, and sea-level rise projections, with three scenarios: a reference level at 4 m NGF, then projections for the 2100 horizon with +20 cm and +60 cm. In addition, the analysis incorporates flood risk linked to the local watershed as well as a vegetation fire risk assessment based on vegetation types, soil moisture, and surrounding areas requiring brush clearing.
Results
The study highlights the campsite’s high vulnerability to marine flooding. In the baseline scenario, 42.5% of the site’s surface area and 53.3% of pitches are already impacted. With a rise of +20 cm, the impact increases to 47.4% of the surface area and 59.1% of pitches. In the most unfavorable scenario (+60 cm), 60.4% of the total surface area and 71.5% of pitches are affected. The analysis also made it possible to formalize operational recommendations: adapting zones according to hazard level, an evacuation plan toward a higher refuge area, improved water management, and increased vigilance around vegetated surroundings.
Benefits
The La Guérandière campsite now has a clear, well-documented analytical foundation to:
objectively assess its exposure to climate hazards,
prioritize sensitive areas of the site,
guide its future development choices,
strengthen user safety,
initiate more robust dialogue with the relevant local authorities and partners.
